OpenGeofiction
Realistic population
Posted by BMSOUZA on 18 January 2016 in Brazilian Portuguese (Português do Brasil).Hi, friends!
I need some criticism of yours in a problem about Cariocas. I wrote about the population in each city and town in Cariocas in the wiki article, but, surprise, the total is around 1.300.000 inhabitants (!!!!).
What could be a (total) realistic population to Cariocas??? I would like to read suggestions…
You can suggest a total number, and I can “divide” it to the cities and towns, or if someone would like to help in more details, please, consider somethings:
*Gragoatá (and Aracati), because its area, would be the same number of Itacolomi+Várzea da Palma. Itororó also is a big town, like Várzea da Palma.
*The conurbation Paranabi+Japuíba+Cambaquara also needs to be big, something to justify my only railway in the country, and mentioning the future expansion to Japuíba.
*Soon I will re-build Itabi and Piratiba as smaller district-capitals.
Best regards to all!!! Bruno Moreira
Discussion
Comment from Luciano on 18 January 2016 at 10:13
I always work on population for my territories by thinking about densities.
First step: I imagine what kind of “feel” a given country or area has. For example, Ardisphere should have a “feel” similar to California, USA, or Buenos Aires Province, Argentina, with some higher density areas with a “feel” similar to South Korea.
Second step: I look up the real world population density for those places. California has a density of 95/km2, Buenos Aires Province has a density of 51/km2 and South Korea has a population density of 301/km2. So maybe I want a population density about halfway between: let’s estimate maybe 100/km2.
Third step: find the land area of my territory. Ardisphere has a land area of 170447 km2.
Fourth step: multiply the land area by the expected population density. 170447 km2 x 100/km2 = 17,000,000. Although I haven’t made it official or posted it to the wiki, this is, in fact, the current population of the Ardisphere if you add up all the counties.
So for Cariocas, you could start with a place you know, e.g. Espírito Santo state, 84/km2. Then multiply that number times the current listed land area of Cariocas (from OGF:Area table). 8896 x 84 = 747264.
If you make the population of Cariocas higher, then the “feel” will be more crowded than Espírito Santo state. You can work backwards, too. Take the current population that you have - that’s 1.5 million. Divided by 8896 gives a density of 168/km2.
What is a place with similar density? Well, São Paulo state has 180/km2. That’s pretty close.
Comment from Leowezy on 18 January 2016 at 14:24
Also, consider how many of your people live in urban spaces; a population density of 180/km² can feel quite “vivid” when spread out more or less evenly across the country; If two people live in household, there would be one house every 100m (just estimating). But if 90% live in somewhat dense areas, then the other areas can be very empty or even uninhabited. For example I would imagine that in São Paulo state the majoarity would live in the agglomeration of São Paulo; the rest of the province could literally be pure wilderness.
Comment from Luciano on 18 January 2016 at 14:46
@Leowezy - of course, population is unevenly distributed. You can apply the same methodology as I discussed to zoom in on specific locales - it’s how I’ve worked out the population for individual counties and cities, too. South Korea is a great example, actually. It is technically one of the most densely populated non-city-state (e.g. Singapore) countries in the world. Yet I have been in places in the country where there is nothing but mountains and the closest town was a half-day’s walk away (for example). Meanwhile, other areas are a bit crowded - for example, this view of area near where I live, that I took a few years ago.
Comment from histor on 18 January 2016 at 15:08
With 20.000 to 35.000 inhabitants each km² you can have a good urban athmosphere (buildings with 4 or 5 floors etc.). The rural area in Germany I live has 100.000 on 1000 km² (from them 30.000 in the central town) - so at 100 / km² you can have a lot of wood and fields, but too every 10 km a village.
Other aspect = every 30 - 40 km a town, in the half between a village. As there are no railways, that was the way a day with horses (the village between for rest at midday).
Comment from BMSOUZA on 18 January 2016 at 19:22
Thank you all the comments!
I think Luciano got the perfect example to me, about Espírito Santo state, where I worked three years. It is basically a rural state with beaches and a dense metropolitan area – the same thing I have in mind about Cariocas Islands.
As commented, the population is unevenly distributed. I know São Paulo state, and I ever lived in Rio de Janeiro state, the citations in your comments, and I can say how it is. Rio de Janeiro city (I was born and lived there) the density is 5.389,46 hab./km², but we can consider the fact the bigger “urban forest” of the world is there, Floresta da Tijuca, and it takes sooooo much territory. Currently I live in northeast Rio de janeiro state, in the urban area of a town. My girlfriend lives in a isolated house 15km to my house, and, in this way, there are no buildings in 10km (!!!), hehehe.
So, I will be based in a idea of 84/km2, and I think a half of the total population are in Itacolomi+Itororó+Várzea da Palma and Gragoatá+Aracati…
Thanks to all!!
Bruno Moreira